作者: Yi Huang, Yan Zeng, Pan Jiang, Hao Chen, Jingtian Yang

Abstract: Dipteronia sinensis is an endangered relict tree species in the endemic north temperate flora of China, which has important reference values for studying paleoclimate and species variation as well as geographic zonation changes. Based on 96 occurrence points of D. sinensis and 9 environmental factors, the potential geographic distribution of D. sinensis in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, the Jackknife test was used to assess the important factors governing its potential geographic distribution. In addition, response curves were selected to determine the suitable values of environmental factors and further quantitatively predicted the potential geographic distribution of D. sinensis under the climate changet. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was extremely high, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC training value) of 0.959. The potential suitable habitat area of D. sinensis under current climate condition was 103.9 × 10⁴ km², mainly located in the central and northwestern regions of China; (2) the main environmental factors affecting the potential geographic distribution of D. sinensis were the temperature factor (min temperature of coldest month) and the precipitation factor (annual precipitation); (3) the area of low, high and total suitable habitats showed a decreasing trend under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in 2070s, and the area of moderately suitable habitats showed an increasing trend under the three scenarios in 2050s and 2070s, and the center of gravity of the potential suitable habitats of D. sinensis would shift to the northwest. Our results can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of D. sinensis.

Keywords: Dipteronia sinensis, climate change, potential geographic distribution, MaxEnt model

DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/146936